Track address
1122 Route 106 North
Loudon, NH 03307
Office address
P.O. Box 7888
Loudon, NH 03307-7888
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THE RACING SWAMI'S NASCAR FANTASY REPORTS
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New Hampshire speedway
statistical Reports: |
REPORT 19- lenox industrial tools 301 - new hampshire
sprint cup series race # 19 of 36 - race to the chase # 19 of 26 Sunday-july 15th, 2012- 1:00pm TNT
Last Week : Last weeks race, the Coke Zero 400 was held at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday night. Matt Kenseth, the winner of the Daytona 500 was able to take the pole and led the field as the race got underway. Kenseth and Greg Biffle were the dominant cars most of the night. Many drivers were involved in accidents over the course of the night, such as Jimmie Johnson, who was the first big name to exit the race. The race saw a scary incident on pit road where Ryan Newman got turned into another pit, endangering several crew members. In the final laps Kenseth and Biffle led while Kasey Kahne was pushing Tony Stewart towards the front. With some masterful driving, Stewart was able to side draft past Kenseth and cross the finish line before Kenseth. For Stewart, it was his 3rd win of the year and with that virtually locked up a spot in this years Championship Chase. The Swami did pick Stewart to win the race but many of the Swami's picks got taken out in accidents. For the day, he did hit the race winner and hit on eight of the Top 15 drivers. This Week : The race this week moves to New Hampshire for the first of the two races this year at this track. Setups are not real hard at the New Hampshire as this track is relatively flat with the corners having 12 degrees of banking and the straight away's having between 2 to 7 degrees of banking. If you look at statistics, it seems like this is another track that every driver has fluked one good finish there in their career including the fact that we have had 9 different winners in the last 10 races. Last year, Ryan Newman won this race from the pole just ahead of teammate Tony Stewart. Stewart came back to take the win in the second race at New Hampshire. in the fall race we saw Clint Bowyer win his second race of his career at this track. There are certain drivers that are hands and feet above the rest there and statistics this week will show you that maybe five to seven drivers have enjoyed a great deal of success at New Hampshire. With that said, lets look at this weeks race at the New Hampshire Speedway, the Lenox Tools 301. Track Characteristics
The New Hampshire Track is a 1.058 mile oval, sometimes referred to as a paper clip shaped track. The drivers start out on a 1500 foot straight away that is banked at 2 degrees. As they enter turn one, they transition into a 12 degree bank and continue into that banking thru turn 2. As they enter the back stretch the banking returns to 2 degrees for 1500 feet. As they enter turn 3, the drivers again transition into a 12 degree banking thru turns 3 and 4 till they re-enter the front stretch. Qualifying speeds are typically in the low 130's while the track record for race speed is 133 miles per hour. Pit Road speed is 55 miles per hour. This race will be 301 laps long or a total of 318.5 miles.
Does qualifying really matter at New Hampshire ?
Qualifying in the Top 15 seems to be the place to start if your going to win at New Hampshire. In looking back at all the races that have been run at New Hampshire, there has never been just one provisional winner. The race has been won only eight times from a starting position of 15th or worst but three of those have come in the last eight races. Joey Logano won a rain shorten race in 2009 after starting 24th, Kurt Busch won the race from 26th in 2008 on a fuel mileage gamble and last fall, Tony Stewart won the race from 20th after the race leader ran out of gas. In the last 10 races, other then the three I just mentioned, all the races have been won by cars starting in the top 15, including two from the pole. Last year, Ryan Newman won the spring race starting on the pole and in 2007 Clint Bowyer won the fall race after starting on the pole. Ryan Newman and Juan Montoya have each won two pole positions in the last five races. Both were able to notch a Top 5 out of that starting spot while in the other two races they finished 25th or worst. There have been eight different pole winners in the last ten races and their finishing average is 18.10, which is pretty high by standards. That doesn't give a lot of hope to the pole winner but as I said it has been won from the pole two times in the last ten races. The average starting position of the race winner in the last 10 races has been 11.80, which is also very high when compared to other tracks. Overall a little over 78% of the race winners have started in the Top 15. Kurt Busch has the best starting average of the active drivers with a 8.20 average start, followed by Ryan Newman at 10.50, Tony Stewart is at 10.90, Clint Bowyer is at 11.10 and finally Jeff Gordon rounds out the Top 5 with a 11.40 average start. Busch, Bowyer and Stewart all have won races in the last 10 races. So qualify in the Top 15, race hard, stay out of trouble and you might just have a good day at New Hampshire.
Is horsepower the key to victory?
The answer to this question this week is Yes and No ! Of course, horsepower is important at every racetrack, and it will be important here but the key to winning Sunday according to the drivers handling, brakes, fast pit stops and total concentration by the entire team on every lap. This is a flat track and will challenge the crew chief to get the car set up properly entering and exiting the corners without drifting up the track that much. It is important to qualify well and maintain that track position at minimum. We will see an average of nine (9) cautions during the race so there are opportunities to make up some ground if your car is not handling well early in the race and cars that go a lap down early can make up that lap via the lucky dog rule. Last year, we had a whopping 10 cautions in the spring race and just 3 in the fall race. Drivers have to be smart enough to know when they need to just let someone go by them as often we see pit strategy become huge at this track. The ability of a pit crew to gain their driver positions is a huge factor, especially late in the race. The pit crew has to be on top of their game. There are big variables like taking 2 tires or no tires to improve track position and even fuel mileage could figure into this race. This race will be won by the driver who has great patience, one of the best handling car and a pit crew that is consistently good on pit stops with no errors. The on occasion we have a race like we had in 2009 when the race leaders pitted just before rain set in which made a lot of other teams play the rain gamble and Joey Logano played it the best while quite a few other notables didn't play it quite right.
Will there be a familiar or unexpected face in Victory Lane?
There has been nine different winners here in the past ten races at New Hampshire which is really unusual and make picking a winner here really a huge challenge. Clint Bowyer is the only driver to win more then one race and he did that winning the fall race in 2010 and winning the fall race in 2007. Other past winners here have included Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Joey Logano, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin. Other notables here would be Jeff Burton, who has four career wins here, Jeff Gordon who has three career wins and Jimmie Johnson also has won here three times. Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman have won multiple races here in their careers. Other career race winners here have included Robby Gordon and Joe Nemechek. Other guys that do well on relatively flat tracks include Kasey Kahne, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex Jr, David Reutimann and Juan Montoya. I suspect that we will see the normal week to week culprits up there all day like Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon. Throw in Mark Martin, Jeff Burton and Joey Logano into that mix and I think the winner will come from this group of drivers I have mentioned here and I don't believe that this time around that we will see a surprise winner unless we have a rain out like we had in 2009 that handed Joey Logano that win. A long shot here might be a guy like Marcos Ambrose.
virtual lap at new hampshire
new hampshire - 2011 races rewind Race 1 - Lenox Tool 301 : Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart started 1-2 in the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and despite a lot of problems here and there during the race, that is the way they finished also. For Newman, it was his first victory of the year and his third at the 1.058-mile track and the 15th of his career. It also broke a 47 race winless streak. Denny Hamlin finished 3rd, Joey Logano 4th and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the Top 5. Newman pitted for the last time on Lap 217 of 301 and he did an excellent job saving fuel to be able to finish the race. Stewart, who pitted under caution nine laps later, charged through the field but used up his equipment racing Hamlin for second with eight laps left. Hamlin also backed off and saved fuel in the closing laps to ensure a top-five finish..
Race 2 - Sylvania 300 : Tony Stewart won the race when the race leader Clint Bowyer ran out of fuel with fewer than three laps to go. It was his second consecutive victory, his second of the season and the 41st of his career. Brad Keselowski parlayed pit strategy into a second-place run and Greg Biffle came home third. They were followed by Jeff Gordon and Brian Vickers in the Top 5. Matt Kenseth, David Ragan, Carl Edwards, Juan Montoya and Regan Smith completed the top 10. Bowyer failed to complete the final two laps and finished 26th. Jeff Gordon led the most laps during the race with him leading the pack for 78 laps.
2011 New Hampshire Race 1 Results 2011 New Hampshire Race 2 Results
who's hot going into new hampshire
In NASCAR, drivers that get on a roll as the season progresses, tend to stay on a roll as it is an indication that the team has all the parts working together as one. We now have had eighteen races under our belts in the 2012 season and Matt Kenseth continues to lead the who's hot list this week. Kenseth looked like he might win a race at Daytona, had to settle for a 3rd place finish. Still it was his 8th Top 10 finish in the last 10 races. Dale Earnhardt Jr jumps back to 2nd place this week despite finishing 15th at Daytona while Brad Keselowski jumps up to 3rd this week. Jimmie Johnson just can't buy a good finish at Daytona and he didn't this time around either which dropped him two place to 4th this week. Clint Bowyer also did not have a good race at Daytona but he maintained his Top 5 spot in 5th place. Kasey Kahne jumps up a spot to 6th while the Daytona winner, Tony Stewart jumps up 3 spots to 7th place this week. Greg Biffle continues to slide and this week he drops down to 8th place. Kevin Harvick is 9th and Denny Hamlin is 10th. Carl Edwards needs a win or two here pretty soon to better his Chase chances but even without a win, he jumped up to 11th this week. Paul Menard stays in the Top 15 in the 12th spot while Kyle Busch falls to 13th. Martin Truex Jr has the 14th spot and in 15th, we finally see Jeff Gordon on the list this week but it may be too late for him to salvage his season. Based on their records at New Hampshire, a few of the Top 15 drivers on this list could have a big weekend at New Hampshire when the checkered flag drops.
Career Driver Performance at Upcoming Tracks in Race to the Chase (2005 to 2012)
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The Swami's Picks
The Lenox Tools 301 is going to come down to eight drivers I believe and I would suggest that you pick one of them to win the race on Sunday. To pick the winner out of this group will be your challenge, as each of the Top 10 here will contend at some point I believe. The eight would include Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch. I have to like Tony Stewart based on his recent performances at this track and the fact that he tends to pick up the pace the closer we get to the Chase to the Championship. I have to like Denny Hamlin as the alternate this week. I would suggest you pick most of the multi-car organizations that have a group of drivers that are historically good at this track for finishes in the Top 15 on Sunday. There are only six to ten drivers that have a decent record what so ever at this track. So once again I am going with Stewart to win and the rest of the Top 15 are based on statistical averages and should be a fairly accurate barometer for you to make selections. If your picking one driver per year, this would be a good race to pick maybe a Clint Bowyer.
The Top 10
1. Tony Stewart- Stewart broke out of his slump big time last week at Daytona, posting his 3rd win of the 2012 season. The win more then likely cemented his place in the Chase. Stewart is coming into a track where he has finished 1st or 2nd in three of the last four races. He has the best average finish in the last 7 races and has the highest driver rating in the series. Good bet to win on Sunday Avg Finish Last 7 Races - 8.00 Rank 1st T / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 114.1 / Last 4 Races - 2, 24, 2 and 1 Avg 7.25 Rank 1st 2. Denny Hamlin- Hamlin is one of the guys that I hate to pick because he is very unpredictable. If you look at his last four races here you can see that trend here. He has a pair of finishes in the Top 5 ; a 2nd and a 3rd place finish. Then he has a 14th and a 29th to go with those. Still in the last 7 races he has the 5th best average and I figure that he is due for a good race so I am going Top 5 Avg Finish Last 7 Races - 12.00 Rank 5th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 98.1 / Last 4 Races - 14, 2, 3 and 29 Avg 12.00 Rank 7th 3. Ryan Newman - Ryan's chances to make the Chase this year probably hinge on a wild card chance so getting another win is huge for his chances. This is a good track for Newman to do just that as he did win this same race last year. Over the last four races he has finished in the Top 10 in three of them and has the 3rd best finishing average in those races. Ryan needs a win, but...??? Avg Finish Last 7 Races - 16.00 Rank 12th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 95.1 / Last 4 Races - 6, 8, 1 and 25 Avg 10.00 Rank 3rd 4 Jeff Gordon - Perhaps no one needs a win more then Gordon does and he probably needs more then one to make the Chase. There are signs that this team is coming around but it may be too late. Still over the last seven races, he is tied with Stewart for best average finish and has a driver rating at 109. In the last four races, his worst finish was 11th so I am liking his chances for a Top 10 Avg Finish Last 7 Races - 8.00 Rank 1st T / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 109.0 / Last 4 Races - 4, 6, 11 and 4. Avg 6.25 Rank 1st 5. Kevin Harvick- Harvick is a pretty good driver no matter what type of track that he races on and he certainly has been one of the better drivers here recently. He has a pair of 5th place finishes in the last four races and he is one of the better drivers on the flat tracks. This hasn't been one of his better years but he looks like a lock for the Chase and a Top 5 here may lock it up for him Avg Finish Last 7 Races - 17.00 Rank 15th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 91.7 / Last 4 Races - 5, 5, 21 and 12 Avg 10.75 Rank 4th 6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Like I said last week since he tasted that win at Michigan, he is hungry for more. He has a decent history here over the course of his career but he does not have a win or many Top 5's in his 25 career races here; he has six. He has just ten Top 10 finishes in those 25 races so while it seems odds are against him, he is having a great, great year so I am looking for a Top 10 Avg Finish Last 7 Races - 13.86 Rank 9th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 96.5 / Last 4 Races - 8, 4, 15 and 17 Avg 12.25 Rank 5th 7. Clint Bowyer- Clint has been great this year and he is coming into a track where he picked up his first win. He has won another race here also and is ranked in the Top 10 in most all statistical categories. His best race seem to come in the fall races but considering the improvement in MWR cars makes him dangerous in any race. I like his chances for a Top 10 or better. Avg Finish 7 Races - 13.29 Rank 7th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 95.1 / Last 4 Races - 7, 1, 17 and 26 Avg 12.75 Rank 9th 8. Jimmie Johnson - If not for the the restrictor plate races, he would probably would be leading the points by a good margin. Once again he got taken out of a plate race last week, finishing 36th. New Hampshire is a good track for him as well as the fact that he is one of the best on flat tracks. He has won here before and he could very well come away a winner this week but I am going Top 10 Avg Finish 7 Races - 9.14 Rank 4th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 104.6 / Last 4 Races - 1, 25, 5 and 18 Avg 12.25 Rank 8th 9. Jeff Burton - Jeff certainly hasn't had the best of years in 2012 but he did run well last week at Daytona which may give this team a needed boast coming into a track where Burton has won more races then any other active driver; four. Those were back in his Roush days but still he knows what needs to be done to win. While a win here may be a stretch, a Top 10 run certainly would be in play Avg Finish 7 Races - 15.29 Rank 11th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 94.1 / Last 4 Races - 12, 15, 16 and 13 Avg 14.00 Rank 12th 10. Kasey Kahne- Kasey is one of those guys you need to throw out the statistics since most of his career he was deprived of top notch equipment but now he has the best so expect the best. In the last four races, he has cracked the Top 15 in three of them and gotten a Top 10 in one of them. He needs another win or a lot of points in upcoming races so this is race one of that effort. Avg Finish 7 Races - 18.57 Rank 20th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 87.3 / Last 4 Races - 36, 14, 6 and 15 Avg 17.75 Rank 21st The Best of the Rest ( Have a Good Chance to Finish in the Top 10 )
11. Carl Edwards- There is no one as desperate as Edwards to win a race and if he doesn't get a couple wins or a string of Top finishes, he will not make the Chase. The last three races he has finished no worst then 13th and finished 8th last fall. Avg Finish 7 Races - 13.71 Rank 8th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 88.0 / Last 4 Races - 25, 11, 13 and 8 Avg 14.25 Rank 13th 12. Kurt Busch- No one has wrecked more cars then Busch this season. last count it was 17 and counting. That is a problem picking him so if he can actually finish a race, he might be a good pick here at NH. I will still go with him for a Top 15 regardless of 2012. Avg Finish 7 Races - 9.00 Rank 3rd / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 93.3 / Last 4 Races - 3, 13, 10 and 22 Avg 12.00 Rank 6th 13. Matt Kenseth - Matt showed us last week that he isn't going to have any let downs from his decision to move on from Roush Racing. Kenseth has not been good at NHIS but has finished in the Top 10 in half of his career races. Scary pick of the week here Avg Finish 7 Races - 21.57 Rank 26th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 77.3 / Last 4 Races - 17, 23, 20 and 6 Avg 16.50 Rank 16th 14. Kyle Busch - Kyle continues to struggle with finishing races and he has to be the most unpredictable driver in the series; he could win or he could finish well back in the pack. WHich with guy is never known until the Fat Lady sings at the end of this race. Avg Finish 7 Races - 16.14 Rank 13th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 88.5 / Last 4 Races - 11, 9, 36 and 11 Avg 16.75 Rank 19th 15. Greg Biffle- Biffle has won a race here and he did come close last fall, finishing 3rd at the end of that day. Still he is very inconsistent here with just five Top 5 finishes in his career. He finishes outside the Top 10 a lot more then he does in it, so 15th?? Avg Finish 7 Races - 11.71 Rank 6th / New Hampshire Driver Rating - 87.7 / Last 4 Races - 16, 17, 18 and 3 Avg 16.50 Rank 10th Others to Watch : Martin Truex Jr, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman |
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